Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!


Reader Response to “Don’t Marry Career Women” – Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!

Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
Mamonaku
Regular Contributor
Mamonaku
Greetings gents!

This is an update on a previous post of mine:
http://forums.forbes.com/forbes/board/message?board.id=respond_marry_career_woman&message.id=8396

On that thread I made the following findings:

Married men, based on the assumptions made in my previous analysis, had a present value of wages at $686.074.54, not including cost of living, rent, car payments, etc.

Divorced men, based on the assumptions made in my previous analysis, had a present value of wages at $599,863.89.

These numbers resulted in a net loss of $86,210.65.

Then I says to myself, “Self? What would the portfolio risk of married vs divorced men be?”

So, I did some more number crunching.

Lets pretend that the $686,075 and the $599,864 numbers are possible investment outcomes.

And lets assume that the probabilities of marriage (.68) vs divorce (.32) are the probabilities of the investment choice outcome.

(For more detail on how I got .68 vs .32, please see the thread linked above.)

And the numbers!

Expected return:

.68*686075= 466,531
.32*599864= 191,956

466,531+191,956= E(r) 658,487.

Variance:
.68(686,075-658,487^2) + .32(599,864-658,487^2)

Variance= 517,546,466 + 1,099,729,961 = 1,617,276,427.

Standard Dev = Square root of 1,617,276,427.

Standard Dev = $40,215.00

In dollars, the risk is $40,215.00.

As a percentage,

40215/(686075+599864) = 3% Standard Deviation.

Now then! Lets compare this to the risk of an American Man marrying a foreign woman.

Please note the following info from the Customs and Immigration Service:

http://www.uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/repsstudies/mobappa.htm

“According to data supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau, there were
2,395,000 marriages in the U.S. in the 12 months ending June, 1997 (and
1,154,000 divorces in the same period). The 4,000 to 6,000 marriages
involving international services represent, then, a tiny portion (.021
percent) of the women who marry U.S. men.
It is interesting to note that, based largely on data provided by the
agencies themselves (along with the Commission on Filipinos Overseas
report cited above), marriages arranged through these services would
appear to have a much lower divorce rate than the nation as a whole,
fully 80 percent of these marriages having lasted over the years for
which reports are available.”

If this is the case, then our divorce probability with respect to a foreign woman is:

100 marriages less 80 successful marriages = 20 divorces.

Lets assume also that in these 20 divorces, women will initiate them at the same rate as American women. (Please see my inital post for more info on American women initiating divorces.)

.2 * .75 = .15 probability of divorce initiated by foreign wives.

So lets run the numbers for Foreign bride marriages!

xpected return:

.85*686075= 583164
.15*599864= 89980

583164 + 89980= E(r) 673144.

Variance:
.85(686,075-673144^2) + .15(599,864-673144^2)

Variance= 142,129,146 + 805,493,760 = 947,622,906.

Standard Dev = Square root of 947,622,906.

Standard Dev = $30783.00

In dollars, the risk is $30783.00.

As a percentage,

30783/(686075+599864) = 2.39% Standard Deviation.

So! As you can see, 3% – 2.39% = .61%

There is .61% more risk involved in marrying American women.

In light of these numbers, prudent financial managers would reject the American women portfolio, and choose the Foreign women portfolio.

And of course, those who don’t marry ar all have 0% Standard Deviation, or, No Risk. So the most prudent financial manager would choose not to marry at all, based on the current conditions.

DON’T MARRY FEMINIST CAREER WOMEN!!

Thanks for reading.

09-24-2006 01:51 PM

Re: Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
leeraconteur
Regular Contributor
leeraconteur

Overall a fine analysis, although I believe the Risk Delta is greater, as more men are looking overseas for a FW.  The cost involved is ~$15,000 when one includes lawyers, immigration fees and travel and time expended costs.

It follows that the reward must be greater than this for the scenario to fly.

09-24-2006 02:31 PM

Re: Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
Mamonaku
Regular Contributor
Mamonaku
Lee said,

“Overall a fine analysis, although I believe the Risk Delta is greater, as more men are looking overseas for a FW. The cost involved is ~$15,000 when one includes lawyers, immigration fees and travel and time expended costs.

It follows that the reward must be greater than this for the scenario to fly.”

Thanks Boss!

/Agreed that the risk in real life is much higher. As you know, I didn’t add in any expenses of any type to keep it simple.

And of course, if the man makes more money than what I based my projections on, the risk simply increases.

Message Edited by Mamonaku on 09-24-200603:00 PM

09-24-2006 02:59 PM

Re: Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
OneSmartChick
Regular Contributor
OneSmartChick

Good Luck on finding the kind of women you want overseas – you may wish to put this on another message board.

I have not seen a post wanting to marry a man with an attitude toward women that you have (on this board).  None of the women here are lining up to marry you.

09-24-2006 06:54 PM

Re: Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
juliandroms
Regular Contributor
juliandroms
I believe it’s called “outsourcing.”

09-24-2006 08:09 PM

Re: Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
Back2TheKitchen
Regular Contributor
Back2TheKitchen

OneSmartChick wrote:
Good Luck on finding the kind of women you want overseas – you may wish to put this on another message board.
I have not seen a post wanting to marry a man with an attitude toward women that you have (on this board). None of the women here are lining up to marry you.

I smell desperation.

—————————–

“With women or the female mindset imparted through feminization on the vast majority of society, it will be very easy to control the Empire…I mean…the republic.” – mirrorofthesoul.blogspot.com

09-24-2006 08:16 PM

Re: Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
Mamonaku
Regular Contributor
Mamonaku
“Good Luck on finding the kind of women you want overseas – you may wish to put this on another message board.

I have not seen a post wanting to marry a man with an attitude toward women that you have (on this board). None of the women here are lining up to marry you.”

OSC,

As you know, I have never disrespected you personally.

When you come to debate men such as ourselves, it would be better for you to discuss the merits of the post rather than attacking the messenger.

No points for you that way my lady.

Is it that you are quite unable to refute my analysis?

Try again please.

09-24-2006 09:42 PM

Re: Marriage Portfolio Risk… why American women are inferior investments!
khankrumthebulg
Regular Contributor
khankrumthebulg
Gotta love the “Cat Herders” mentality. Like Fire Marshall Bill “In Living Color”. Or as Ron White the Comic says “You Can’t Fix Stupid”!!! I have personal knowledge of no less than 8 marriages of US Men to Foreign Women. Asian, Central American, and Eastern Europe. All longer than 10 years. The Women report being loved, appreciated, and cherished. Their needs being met. All have produced children, stable households, and are doing well.

The point being both parties needs are being met. The only thing I consistently read by the postings of Career Women here. Is their needs are the only ones that matter. Men’s needs do not matter to them. Fine and dandy. “Never Let a Fish use your Bicycle”. Now the representative sampling of the marriages I am personally familiar with is small. But the data bears it out. And the attitudes of the Women in question are light years apart from American Women. No Chip on the Shoulder. No entitlement mentality, no automatic blaming of Men, no automatic misandry.

Feminists are miserable Nags who want others to be as miserable as themselves. And are jealous of Women who are happy and have children. Linda Hirshmann is typical of the Career Cat Herders whining about Women who sell out, and stay home to raise children. Feminists are only happy if Women make choices they approve of. And if Men are punished in the process. Feminism=Hate Movement.

09-25-2006 08:02 AM

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